Probability Theory Primer: part I

Illustrative Example 1:

What is the chance of throwing a number greater than 4 with a fair die whose faces are numbered from 1 to 6?

Solution 1:

There are 6 possible ways in which the die can fall, and of these two are the favourable events required.

Hence, required chance is \frac{2}{6}=\frac{1}{3}.

Illustrative example 2:

From a bag containing 4 white and 5 black balls a man draws 3 at random; what are the odds against these being all black?

Solution 2:

The total number of ways in which 3 balls can be drawn is 9 \choose 3, and the number of ways of drawing 3 black balls is 5 \choose 3; therefore, the chance of drawing 3 black balls is equal to

\frac{{5 \choose 3}}{{9 \choose 3}}=\frac{5.4.3}{9.3.7}=\frac{5}{43}.

Thus, the odds against the event are 37 to 5.

Illustrative example 3:

Find the chance of throwing at least one ace in a single throw with two dice.

Solution 3:

In die games, there is no ace. We can pick up any number as an ace in this question. Once it is chosen, it is fixed.

So, the possible number of cases is 6 \times 6=36.

An ace on one die may be associated with any of the six numbers on the other die, and the remaining five numbers on the first die may each be associated with the ace on the second die; thus, the number of favourable cases is 11.

Therefore, the required probability is \frac{11}{36}.

Illustrative example 4:

Find the chance of throwing more than 15 in one throw with 3 dice.

Solution 4:

A throw amounting to 18 must be made up of 6, 6, 6 and this can occur in one way only; 17 can be made up of 6. 6. 5 which can occur in 3 ways; 16 may be made up of 6, 6, 4 and 6, 5, 5 each of which arrangements can occur in 3 ways.

Therefore, the number of favourable cases is 1+3+3+3, that is, 10.

And, the total number of cases possible is 6^{3}, that is, 216.

Hence, the required probability is \frac{10}{216}=5/108.

Illustrative example 5:

A has 3 shares in a lottery, in which there are 3 prizes and 6 blanks; B has 1 share in a lottery in which there is 1 prize and 3 blanks; show that A’s chance of success is to B’s as 16:7.

Solution 5:

A may draw 3 prizes in one way; A may draw 2 prizes and 1 blank in \frac{3.3}{1.2} \times 6 ways; A may draw 1 prize and 2 blanks in 3 \times \frac{6.5}{1.2} ways; the sum of these numbers is 64, which is the number of ways in which A can win a prize. Also, he can draw 3 tickets in \frac{9.8.7}{1.2.3} ways, that is, 84 ways.

Hence, A’s chance of success is \frac{64}{84} = \frac{16}{21}.

B’s chance of success is clearly \frac{1}{3}.

Therefore, the required ratio is \frac{\frac{16}{21}}{\frac{1}{3}} = \frac{16}{7}.

Tutorial questions:

  1. In a single throw with two dice, find the chances of throwing (a) a five (b) a six.
  2. From a pack of 52 cards, two cards are drawn at random, find the chance that one is a knave and other is a queen.
  3. A bag contains 5 white, 7 black and 4 red balls. Find the chance that 3 balls all drawn at random are all white.
  4. If four coins are tossed, find the chance that there are two heads and two tails.
  5. One of two events must happen; given that the chance of one is two-thirds that of the other, find the odds in favour of the other.
  6. If from a pack four cards are drawn, find the chance that they will be the four honours of the same suit.
  7. Thirteen persons take their places at a round table, show that it is five to one against two particular persons sitting together.
  8. There are three events A, B, C, out of which one must, and only one can happen; the odds are 8 is to 3 against A; 5 to 2 against B; find the odds against C.
  9. Compare the chance of throwing 4 with one die, 8 with two dice and 12 with three dice.
  10. In shuffling a pack of cards, four are accidentally dropped; find the chance that the missing cards should be one from each suit.
  11. A has 3 shares in a lottery containing 3 prizes and 9 blanks; B has 2 shares in a lottery containing 2 prizes and 6 blanks; compare their chances of success.
  12. Show that the chances of throwing six with 4, 3 or 2 dice respectively are as 1:6:16
  13. There are three works, one consisting of three volumes, one of four volumens, and the other of one volume. They are placed on a shelf at random; prove that the chance that the volumes of the same works are all together is \frac{3}{140}.
  14. A and B throw with two dice; if A throws 9, find B’s chance of throwing a higher number.
  15. The letters forming the word Clifton are placed at random in a row; what is the chance that the two vowels come together?
  16. In a hand, what is the chance that the four kings are held by a specified player?

Regards,

Nalin Pithwa.

 

 

 

 

 

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